Category: Uncategorized

  • How Do We Decide On A Course of Action?

    Some economists believe that you weigh up all the costs and benefits of an action.

    Weighing up the costs and benefits is called a logical action.

    In the Star Trek series and films, Spock is logical. Kirk is illogical.

    The problem with being logical is that we would spend so much time weighing up the pros and cons of an action that we would never get anything done.

    Some Economists still believe in the behaviour rational economic man. That he is constantly trying to obtain the maximum benefit from an activity.

    For a rational person.

    There’s a balance between the pain of additional effort and the Joy of additional reward in the supermarket AS he Rushes from Aisle to  Aisle comparing rice and marginal utility or benefit to be gained based on the money being spent.

    How do we decide?

    • Whether to break the law.
    • Not wear our school uniform correctly.
    • Steal from a shop.

    Do we only decide to steel when the expected penalty exceeds the value of the Loot?

    If we followed this logical thinking path, we would only marry to gain the economies of scale from living together. Maybe that’s the way that marriages have traditionally been and its only in the past couple of centuries we have begun to marry for love!

    Do we really act rationally like Mr spock to everything?

    This act of rationality can be seen when someone uses what is called a cost benefit analysis. The work out all the costs and benefits of a plan of action and then make a decision on the outcome.

    You can view the UK government’s analysis of its High Speed Rail programme known as HS2 here.

    In reality we don’t make decision like this.

    In fact most people have already made up their mind about a decision before that attempt any kind of cost benefit analysis.

    When voters in the UK took part in the Brexit Poll in 2017, did they sit down and make a list of the pros and cons and then make a judgement. 

    No they had already decided with whether they were for leaving or remaining before they even listened to what politicians had to say about the advantages and disadvantages!

    Do you stand in the lunch queue and discuss the merits of the various options available?

    No because if you did that lunch would be over by the time you made a fully rational decision.

    The problem is that people have a bias and even when people sit down and try to analyse the data they tend to focus on the data that support their argument.

    Look at the images on the next few slides and make a note of whether you are on the left or the right or inbetween.

    You already have a bias in terms of fashion, food, brands etc without realising it.

    IF there were Two Tribes

    •one of which is mainly made up of cooperative people like the human crew of the starship enterprise

    •the other is populated by rational economic men like spock.

    Which would be the most successful?

    The first tribe has natural instincts to socialise at work and to share his Good Fortune with others.

    Rational economic man is always calculating his own advantage.

    Rational economic man always hunts alone, because although the understands the benefits of working together, rational economic men always cheat on each other.

    Watch this click of a UK programme called “Golden Balls”.

    Co-operative tribes will catch more meat per head and the more food they gather the more people like them there will be in the future.

    Who are you like Spock or Kirk?

  • Advertising – Good or Bad?

    Advertising is the business of trying to persuade people to buy products or services.

    It was defined in 1992 by Bovee as “Advertising is “the non-personal communication of information usually paid for and usually persuasive in nature about products, services or ideas by identified sponsors through the various media.”

    It seems that wherever we go now were are bombarded with advertising. But is it good or bad for us?

    Advertsing on the London Underground.  Image by daviniakay from Pixabay
    Advertising on the London Underground.

    Baron (Nicholas) Kaldor who was a famous Hungarian born British economist, said “advertising was a sinful activity which should be heavily taxed, like smoking, drinking, gambling and employment in service industries”.

    Consider the adverts that you view:

    • Will you be more attractive in a pair of jeans made by company A?
    • Will you have more friends if you drink product B?
    • Will your life be more fulfilling if you are seen wearing a pair of headphones by supplier C?
    • Etc
    Image by Michal Jarmoluk from Pixabay. A pile of jeans.
    Will a certain brand of jeans make you more attractive?

    In these instance then we might say that advertising is persuasive.

    In economic theory such advertising has two impacts on the demand for a good or service.

    1 It increases the demand for a product. There is a saying that there is no such thing as bad advertising, but Gerald Ratner might disagree.

    2 It makes the demand for the product more inelastic in demand. This means that when the price of the product rises by say 10%, then we would expect the fall in sale to be less than 10%.

    The world’s largest soft drinks company that have approx 22% of the world market share, disclosed worldwide advertising expenses of USD4.500 billion in 2025. It is clearly an important part of their business.

    Beverages. Image by Igor Ovsyannykov from Pixabay
    How do you choose with one to buy? Do you really need to buy one in the first place?

    Others have argued that advertising has an important role is providing us with information. Public service advertising plays this role.

    This advert is brought to you by the Ministry of Health and Zambia Red Cross Society with support from Africa CDC Saving Lives and Livelihoods in partnership with Mastercard Foundation.
    Public Service Advertising Informs.

    Public service adverts also influence the demand for goods and services. In the example of the advert above it is designed to increase the demand for a vaccination. Others might try to discourage the use of a production, eg cigarettes.

    Next time you see an advert, try to decide whether it is persuasive or informative.

    You might find most of the adverts that you see are neither persuasive or informative. In that case what is the purpose of advertising?

    Richard Nelson suggested that the fact that a firm could spend money on advertising was all that mattered.  It showed that a firm was committed to a market, if it wasn’t then it wouldn’t spend money on advertising.

    So customers are right to believe that branded products are of good quality, not because the manufacturer claims that they are good quality – mostly they do not – but because there is little point in advertising branding products of poor quality.

    Why did Baron Kaldor decide that advertising was a sinful activity?

    He believed that advertising was a waste of economic resources for three main reasons:

    The Inefficiency of “Persuasive” vs. “Informative” Advertising:

    He argued that persuasive advertising among competitors selling virtually identical products yields zero net social utility. It merely shuffles demand from one firm to another while adding heavily to the final price paid by consumers. Remember the USD4.500 billion spent by one company alone in the soft drinks market in 2025.

    The Destruction of Consumer Sovereignty:

    Advertising is typically delivered to the consumer as a subsidized, “free” byproduct accompanying other media (like newspapers or broadcasts), it evades standard market testing. Kaldor pointed out that it is not supplied in response to actual consumer demand. Instead, it forces biased, selective, and excessively repetitive messaging onto the public, subverting the idea that consumers rationally dictate the market. We know that the more consumers hear a product name, when faced with a choice they will choose the product that they have heard of the most.

    The Promotion of Monopolies:

    He suggested that massive advertising budgets create significant economies of scale that only the largest corporations can afford. This raises massive barriers to entry for smaller, potentially more innovative competitors. This limits free-market competition.

    Free to air TV channels are for the most part paid for by advertising, a lot of the social media content you view, is paid for by advertising, that free paper you pick up on your commute is paid for by advertising. Your local movie house will tell you, ticket prices would be even higher if it was not for the paid for trailers and adverts before the main event.

    Advertsing. Image by <a href="https://pixabay.com/users/vinsky2002-1151065/?utm_source=link-attribution&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=image&utm_content=3973811">Vinson Tan ( 楊 祖 武 )</a> from Pixabay
    Advertising – Times Square.

    I will leave you with something else to consider. The products that are most heavily advertised are those where there is the most amount of information asymmetry. They also give you the least amount of information about the product.

    Information asymmetry (also called asymmetric information) happens when one party in an economic transaction possess more or better information than the other.

  • Why we have to make choices?

    Every day, every one of us has to make choices. They can be big choices or small choices.

    Why did you decide to read this blog today? There are many other things that you could have chosen to do instead.

    You make about 35,000 choices a day and the majority you don’t even give a second thought to.

    Let’s revisit the last post, there are only 24 hours in a day. We cannot make an extra hour of time.

    So how are you going to spend your 24 hours?

    For the average person a normal working day would be broken down something like this:

    ActivityTypical Time
    Sleeping8 hours 0 minutes
    Working (paid work)7 hours 30 minutes
    Commuting45 minutes
    Eating & drinking1 hour 30 minutes
    Personal care (washing, dressing, etc.)1 hour 0 minutes
    Household tasks (cleaning, cooking, shopping)1 hour 30 minutes
    Leisure (TV, hobbies, social media, reading)2 hours 30 minutes
    Exercise & sport30 minutes
    Socializing/family time45 minutes

    As soon as you choose to do more of one thing, you have less time to do another.

    Your time is limited to 24 hours, so an extra 30 minutes on social media each day, will mean 30 minutes on other activities.

    For some they might choose not to exercise at all, for others they might cut down on something else.

    What would you choose to cut back on?

    In the US the median household income was $87,460.

    They spend their income in roughly these proportions:

    Spending Category% of IncomeAmount (based on $87,460 income)
    Housing34%$29,700
    Transportation16%$14,000
    Food12%$10,500
    Insurance & Pensions13%$11,400
    Healthcare8%$7,000
    Entertainment5%$4,400
    Clothing3%$2,600
    Education2%$1,750
    Miscellaneous7%$6,100

    If they have to spend more on one item then they will have to spend less on another item. If the cost of gas rises they will have to choose to cut their spending elsewhere.

    How would you cope with rising gas prices?